Tun bayan harin da dakarun Ansarullah na kasar Yemen (ko kuma ‘yan Houthi kamar yadda aka fi saninsu), suka kai ranar Asabar din da ta gabata kan wasu matatan mai guda biyu, wato Abqaiq da Khurais, mallakin kamfanin Aramco na kasar Saudiyya, ake ta maganganu da sharhi kan wannan batu. A nata bangaren, kasar Amurka ta bakin sakataren harkokin wajenta, Mike Pompeo, ta zargi Iran da hannu cikin harin lamarin da Iran din, ita ma dai ta bakin nata ministan harkokin wajen, Muhammad Jawad Zarif, ta musanta wannan zargin; wannan dai ba shi ke da muhimmanci ba ganin cewa hakan wata tsohuwar siyasa ce dake tsakanin kasashen biyu, don haka ma babu wanda ya ba shi muhimmanci ganin cewa Amurkan dai ta saba yin hakan, kuma ma babu wani dalilin da ta bayar kan hakan, kamar yadda kuma su kansu ‘yan Houthin da kansu sun sanar cewa su ne suka kai harin.
A harin yanzu dai abin da ke da muhimmanci shi ne wani sako ‘yan Houthin suke son isarwa da wannan hari da suka kai? Sannan mece ce makomar tsaron Saudiyya bayan wannan harin?
Kafin kokarin amsa wadannan tambayoyi yana da kyau mu san wani irin muhimmanci wadannan wajaje da aka kai musu harin suke da shi ga Saudiyya da kuma tattalin arzikinta wanda kusan ana iya cewa ya dogara ne kacokam kan man fetur.
Da farko dai matatar mai ta Abqaiq (ko kuma Baqaiq kamar yadda wasu suke kiran wajen) ita ce matatar mai ko kuma wajen hako mai mafi tsufa da girma a Saudiyya da ma duniya baki daya. An gano wajen ne tun a shekarar 1940, sannan kuma a halin yanzu ana hako man da ya kai ganga miliyan 7 a kowace rana. Sannan wasu bayanan sun ce shi ne yake samar da kashi 70% na man da kamfanin Aramco yake samarwa. Shi kuwa Khurais shi ne wajen hakar mai na biyu wajen girma a Saudiyyan. Muhammancin wadannan wajajen biyu ga Saudiyya ya sanya hatta a shekara ta 2006, kungiyar Al-Qa’ida ta yi kokarin kai wa wajen hari amma dai ba ta yi nasara ba, kamar yadda a yayin yakin Tekun Fasha ma Saddam yayi kokarin tarwatsa wajen ta hanyar kai hare-hare wa Saudiyya da makamai masu linzami samfurin Scud.
‘Yan Houthi din dai ta bakin kakakin sojojinsu, Yahya Sarea, ya bayyana cewar an kai harin ne ta hanyar amfani da jiragen sama marasa matuka guda 10, yana mai jan kunnen Saudiyyan da cewa matukar dai ba ta dakatar da kai ‘hare-haren wuce gona da iri’ kasar Yemen ba to kuwa ta yi shirin fuskantar irin wadannan hare-hare a nan gaba.
To a nan akwai wasu batutuwa masu muhimmanci da ya kamata a yi dubi cikinsu.
1). Kai harin da jirage marasa matuka guda 10 wadanda suka tashi daga birnin Sa’ada da ke kimanin kilomita 1300 daga wajen da aka kai harin wanda hakan, ko shakka babu, yana nuni da irin karfin da ‘yan Houthin suke da shi na kai hari kusan dukkanin kasar Saudiyya kuma a duk lokacin da suka so.
2). Yaya aka yi har wadandan jiragen suka ratsa sararin samaniyyar Saudiyya na tsawon wannan zango har suka kai inda suke so ba tare da an gano su ba?
3). Ina makamai masu linzami samfurin Patriots da Saudiyyan take da su, wadanda ta saye su da biliyon daloli wadanda kuma aka kakkafa su da nufin kare Saudiyyan suke?
4). Sanarwar kakakin sojojin Yemen din na cewa an kai harin ne sakamakon wasu bayanan sirri da suka tattaro har ma yana gode wa wasu da ya kira ‘mutanen arziki da suke cikin Saudiyya’ wadanda suka taimaka musu da wasu bayanan, shin me hakan yake nufi ga tsaron cikin gidan Saudiyya?
5). Bisa la’akari da muhimmancin da wadannan wajaje suke da shi ga tattalin arzikin Saudiyya da ma kawayenta irin su Amurka, yaya aka yi har aka kai hari wajen? Ashe bai kamata wajen ya zamanto daya daga cikin yankuna mafiya tsaro a Saudiyya ba? Idan haka ne, to yaya aka yi aka kai irin wannan harin kuma cikin sauki haka?
To wadannan dai wasu tambayoyi ne da watakila don gudun tsawaita wa, ba nan ne wajen amsa su ba, amma dai abin da babu kokwanto cikinsa shi ne cewa wannan harin yana nuni ne da wasu abubuwa daga cikinsu akwai:
1). Karfin da ‘yan Houthi suke ci gaba da samu a kusan kullum wajen kare kansu daga hare-haren Saudiyya.
2). Tsaron kasar Saudiyya dai yana cikin hatsari don kuwa a ce jiragen yaki marasa matuka sun shafe sama da kilomita 1000 cikin kasar ba tare da an gano su ba. Ko shakka babu nasarar kai wannan harin ba karamar koma baya ba ne ga tsaron kasar da take a matsayin kasa ta uku a duniya wajen kashe kudaden sayo makamai da sauran kayayyakin tsaron kasa.
3). Nasara bayan nasara da bangarorin da ake kiran su da ‘yan tsayin daka (Mihwar al-Muqawamah da larabci ko Axis of Resistance a turance), karkashin jagorancin kasar Iran, suke ci gaba da samu, kama daga nasarar da Hizbullah take ci gaba da samu kan ‘Isra’ila’, ko kuma nasarar da Siriya take ci gaba da samu kan ‘yan ta’adda, ko kuma Iran da take ci gaba da samun nasara kama daga harbo jirgin yakin Amurka mara matuki a watanni baya da kuma ci gaba da tsayin daka wajen tinkarar takunkumin zaluncin Amurka da dai sauransu, sannan ga kuma wannan nasara ta baya-bayan da ‘yan Houthin suka samu…wata alama ce da take nuni da shan kasa ko kuma rashin nasarar masu kiyayya da su na daga Amurka da wasu kawayenta na Turai da kuma wasu kasashen Gabas ta tsakiya karkashin jagorancin Saudiyya.
Rahotanni suna nuni da cewa wannan harin ya janyo dakatar da sama da kashi 50% na man fetur din da Saudiyya take hakowa lamarin da ya sanya farashin mai yayi tashin gwauron zabi da ba taba ganin irinsa ba cikin ‘yan watannin nan. Wanda shi kansa hakan wani sako ne ga Saudiyya da kawayenta na cewa: Dan da ya hana uwarsa barci, to lalle shi ma fa ba zai taba runtsawa ba.
To yanzu mene ne abin yi:
Ko shakka babu tashin hankali da tada kurar yaki ba abin so ba ne, kuma ba na jin akwai wani mutum mai hankali da zai so hakan. Don haka masu fatan alheri ga yankin da ma ita kanta Saudiyya din suke kiranta da wasu kawayenta na yankin da su san cewa ‘Annabi ya faku’, ya kamata su sauya salo. Sun yi amfani da duk wata hanyar da za su iya bi wajen cutar da wadannan kasashe da kungiyoyi (Mihwar al-Muqawamah) amma a kullum sai kashi suke sha, me zai hana ba za su sauya salo ba. Su rungumi zaman lafiya da aiki kafada da kafada da sauran kasashen yankin, su zauna kan teburin tattaunawa (kamar yadda a kullum Iran take kira) don magance matsaloli da sabanin da ake da shi. Wannan ita ce kawai hanyar kubuta daga irin wannan jin kunya da rashin nasara daya bayan daya da suke fuskanta.
Idan har ‘yan Houthi za su iya dakatar da Saudiyya daga hako sama da kashi 50% cikin dari na man fetur dinta, ina ga kuma Iran. Wannan harin dai ya tabbatar da abin da Iran ta sha fadi ne na cewa matukar fa aka ci gaba da takura mata da hana ta fitar da mai dinta, wanda Saudiyya ita ce kan gaba wajen aiwatar da wannan makircin, to fa babu wani da zai fitar da nasa mai din.
Shin ana iya cewa wannan harin wata alama ce da ke tabbatar da wannan maganar, haka nan shin wannan harin wata alama ce da ke tabbatar da maganar shugaban kungiyar Hizbullah, Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah na cewa taba Iran lamari ne da zai kunna wutar yaki a dukkanin yankin kuma kawayenta (Iran) ba za su zuba ido ba? hmmmm…ni dai ba za a ji ‘mutuwar sarki’ a baki na ba, amma dai kukan kurciya jawabi ne, wai mai hankali ke ganewa.
~Muh'd Awwal Bauchi.